Consumer spending in Ghana appears to be holding steady at the start of 2026, even as the usual post-December slowdown begins to show. Fresh data from the Bank of Ghana’s March 2026 Monetary Policy Report points to a resilient outlook, with both VAT collections and retail sales recording solid growth compared to the same period last year.
Domestic VAT collections rose by 7.1 percent year-on-year to GH¢1.799 billion in January 2026, up from GH¢1.680 billion in January 2025. However, on a month-on-month basis, collections dropped by 13.1 percent from the GH¢2.069 billion recorded in December 2025 a decline largely attributed to reduced spending after the festive season.
Retail sales followed a similar pattern. On an annual basis, sales increased significantly by 16.6 percent to GH¢277.88 million, compared to GH¢238.38 million in January last year. But compared to December 2025, retail activity fell sharply by 41.1 percent, reflecting a typical correction after heightened holiday demand.
The manufacturing sector also showed mixed but generally positive signals. Total direct tax collections increased by 9.0 percent year-on-year to GH¢5.802 billion in January 2026. This is an improvement from GH¢5.322 billion recorded in January 2025. Yet, like other indicators, the monthly figures revealed a steep drop of 64.4 percent from the GH¢16.305 billion recorded in December.
A closer look at the tax structure shows corporate tax making up 40.7 percent of total direct taxes, while income tax including PAYE and self-employed contributions accounted for 40.3 percent. The remaining 18.9 percent came from other tax sources.
Private sector contributions to the SSNIT Tier-1 pension scheme also increased, rising by 16.8 percent year-on-year to GH¢551.97 million. This suggests some improvement in formal sector employment and payroll activity.
In contrast, the construction sector experienced a slowdown. Cement sales, often used as an indicator of construction activity, declined by 7.7 percent year-on-year to 206,798.89 tonnes in January 2026. On a monthly basis, sales remained largely unchanged, pointing to subdued momentum in the sector.
Overall, while the month-on-month declines highlight the expected slowdown after the festive period, the year-on-year growth across key indicators suggests that underlying economic activity and consumer demand remain relatively stable.
