Ghanaian motorists and businesses are set to face another increase in fuel prices from Wednesday, September 16, with diesel projected to rise to GH¢19.07 per litre and petrol to GH¢16.26, according to the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC).
COPEC’s projections for the second pricing window of September point to a 10.23% increase in the average retail price of diesel, from GH¢17.30 to GH¢19.07 per litre. Petrol is also expected to rise by 4.24%, from GH¢15.60 to GH¢16.26 per litre.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is meanwhile projected to sell at about GH¢15.32 per kilogramme.
The expected increase has been driven largely by a sharp rise in international crude oil and refined petroleum prices, despite a marginal appreciation of the cedi against the US dollar.
COPEC said the international Free on Board (FOB) price of diesel increased from US$1,250.50 to US$1,404.73 per metric tonne, representing a 12.33% rise during the pricing window.
Petrol’s international FOB price also increased by 10.08%, moving from US$1,136.50 to US$1,251.07 per metric tonne.
The rise in diesel prices is likely to have wider implications for the economy because of the product’s extensive use in commercial transport, freight, agriculture, construction, industry and power generation.
Higher diesel costs could increase the cost of transporting goods from ports and warehouses to markets, putting additional pressure on businesses and potentially pushing up the prices of food and other goods.
COPEC estimates that petrol could be sold between GH¢15.44 and GH¢17.08 per litre across different oil marketing companies, based on an estimated variation of plus or minus 5% around the projected average price.
The latest adjustment comes despite a slight strengthening of the cedi. COPEC said the currency moved from an average interbank rate of GH¢11.5166 to the US dollar at the beginning of the pricing window to GH¢11.4830 by the end, representing an appreciation of 0.29%.
However, the marginal currency gain was insufficient to offset the sharp increase in international oil prices.
Global crude oil prices rose from US$89.30 to US$103.07 per barrel during the period assessed by COPEC, representing an increase of about 15.42%.
The projected diesel increase is particularly significant for businesses operating fleets, generators and heavy equipment. A business that consumes 1,000 litres would spend about GH¢1,770 more at the projected price than it currently does at GH¢17.30 per litre.
Transport operators could also come under renewed pressure as higher fuel costs add to expenses such as vehicle maintenance, spare parts and insurance. If the increase persists, some operators may seek higher fares or freight charges to cover their rising operating costs.
Consumers could also feel the impact indirectly as businesses pass some of their additional fuel and transportation costs on to customers.
The food sector is especially exposed because agricultural produce often travels from farms to aggregation centres, wholesale markets and urban markets before reaching consumers.
LPG users may also face higher household and business expenses if the projected price of GH¢15.32 per kilogramme takes effect.
The extent of the broader economic impact will depend largely on how long international oil prices remain elevated and whether the cedi continues to strengthen.
If global prices fall quickly, the latest increase could prove temporary. However, continued increases in international oil prices could create further pressure on transport costs, household budgets, business margins and inflation.
For now, the key figures to watch from Wednesday will be diesel approaching GH¢20 per litre and petrol moving further above GH¢16, as motorists and businesses brace for another increase in their energy costs.
