Ghana’s gross international reserves currently provide 4.2 months of import cover, but the Bank of Ghana (BoG) has warned that the country’s external position could come under pressure in the third quarter.
Speaking at the opening of the Bank’s 132nd Monetary Policy Committee meeting, Governor Dr Johnson Asiama identified a projected current account deficit, declining reserves and a pause in gold exports by the Ghana Gold Board since mid-August as key risks to the country’s external buffers.
He said these developments would require close monitoring, particularly as demand for foreign exchange typically increases in the fourth quarter.
“Three particular issues will shape our discussions during this meeting, each carrying its own risk. Rebuilding reserves will be a key priority for the Bank in the coming months,” Dr Asiama said.
The outlook for Ghana’s reserves is expected to feature prominently in the MPC’s discussions as the Committee assesses the risks to the economy and determines the appropriate monetary policy stance.
Inflation is also a major concern for the Committee.
Headline inflation increased from 3.2% in March to 5.0% in August, representing a cumulative rise of 1.8 percentage points over five months.
Although inflation remains below the lower bound of the Bank’s medium-term target band, Dr Asiama noted that the recent upward trend requires attention.
He said the MPC would be assessing whether the expected rise in inflation in the coming months would be temporary, driven largely by higher energy prices and administered tariffs, or whether it could translate into more persistent price pressures and influence inflation expectations.
The Committee is therefore considering two key developments: rising inflationary pressures and a weakening external position, both of which could influence its decision on monetary policy.
