Global cocoa prices are expected to fall significantly in 2026 after reaching historic highs over the past two years, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.
The report projects cocoa prices to decline from approximately US$7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to about US$3.80 per kilogram in 2026, marking a drop of more than 50 percent. Prices are, however, forecast to recover slightly in 2027 to around US$4.20 per kilogram.
The anticipated decline is being linked to a recovery in global cocoa supply after prolonged shortages pushed prices to record levels across international markets.
In its April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank noted that cocoa and coffee prices were among the strongest performers within the beverage commodity category during the recent period of supply disruptions. However, improving production conditions and easing supply chain pressures are expected to calm the market in the coming years.
The report forecasts a broader decline in beverage commodity prices in 2026 following sharp increases recorded in both 2024 and 2025.
Despite the expected reduction, cocoa prices are still projected to remain above historical averages, reflecting continued uncertainty and volatility within global agricultural markets.
The projected fall could have major implications for leading cocoa-producing countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together supply a significant portion of the world’s cocoa. Lower prices may impact export revenues and reduce earnings for cocoa farmers, especially if production levels rebound strongly.
The World Bank further cautioned that commodity markets will remain vulnerable to several external factors, including global economic conditions, geopolitical tensions and adverse weather events that could affect agricultural output worldwide.
