Ghana is expected to maintain a strong external position in 2026, even as rising global uncertainty threatens economic stability across many countries.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (April 2026), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Ghana will record a current-account surplus of 1.7% of GDP. In real terms, this translates to an estimated $1.899 billion surplus, based on a projected nominal GDP of about $113.49 billion.
This outlook comes at a time when the global economy is facing renewed strain, largely driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The IMF notes that the war is pushing up commodity prices, tightening financial conditions, and adding pressure to an already fragile global recovery.
Despite these challenges, Ghana appears to be in a relatively resilient position. The IMF forecasts the country’s real GDP growth at 4.8% in 2026, alongside a decline in inflation to 5.8%. These indicators suggest a steady recovery path supported by improved macroeconomic stability.
Globally, the IMF expects growth to reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 under a limited-conflict scenario. For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to remain stable at around 4.3% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, although the Fund cautions that the impact of global shocks will vary widely across countries.
Oil-importing and less resource-intensive economies in the region are likely to feel the pressure more acutely. However, Ghana’s projected surplus indicates it may be better positioned than many of its peers to withstand these external shocks.
The IMF’s assessment reinforces the narrative of Ghana’s ongoing economic recovery, which has recently been anchored on easing inflation, fiscal discipline, and renewed investor confidence under its IMF-supported programme.
Beyond the numbers, the outlook carries both economic and political significance. It suggests that Ghana is not only expected to grow at a steady pace but also to maintain a healthy balance with the rest of the world earning more from exports and inflows than it spends abroad.
In a period where global instability is once again shaping economic outcomes, Ghana’s projected external surplus signals a stronger-than-expected buffer against shocks and a more stable footing moving forward.
