The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has warned that Ghana could experience hotter temperatures, prolonged dry spells and increased dust levels as a very strong El Niño event develops, with its effects expected to influence the country’s weather conditions into the first half of 2027.
According to the Agency, the developing weather phenomenon is likely to result in a hotter, drier and dustier dry season from late November 2026 to March 2027, although some parts of southern Ghana could still experience sudden heavy rainfall and localised flooding.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which influences weather patterns across different parts of the world.
GMet says observations from its monitoring systems and international climate institutions, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), indicate that the event is intensifying.
The phenomenon is expected to reach its peak between now and January 2027 before gradually weakening during the first half of the year.
The Agency noted that previous strong El Niño episodes, particularly those recorded in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, as well as the moderate 2023/24 event, have demonstrated Ghana’s vulnerability to changing rainfall patterns and their effects on agriculture, water supply, hydroelectric power generation and public health.
GMet forecasts below-average rainfall across most parts of the country, although some areas are expected to receive above-average rainfall. These include inland parts of the Greater Accra and Central regions, south-western parts of the Volta and Eastern regions, sections of the Bono and Savannah regions, and north-western parts of the Upper West Region.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are also expected across much of Ghana. However, relatively cooler conditions are anticipated in the south-western parts of the country and some areas of the Volta Region, particularly between Ho and Kete Krachi.
The Agency has further warned that the combination of high temperatures, dry conditions and dust could increase the risk of bushfires, water shortages and pressure on crops and livestock during the dry season.
It has also raised concerns about a possible increase in seasonal meningitis cases, particularly in northern Ghana, where dry and dusty conditions could heighten public health risks.
GMet expects heat stress to be most pronounced between February and April 2027, especially in the northern parts of the country.
Despite the expected dry conditions, the Agency cautioned that the possibility of intense rainfall and localised flooding remains. It urged residents to follow safety advisories from the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO) and the Volta River Authority (VRA).
As part of its recommendations, GMet has advised farmers to consult weather forecasts and agricultural updates from the Agency and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture before planting or replanting.
Farmers have also been encouraged to consider early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties where appropriate and avoid bush burning.
Residents in northern Ghana have meanwhile been urged to reduce their exposure to dust and seek immediate medical attention if they experience symptoms such as fever, severe headaches or a stiff neck.
GMet said the onset and performance of the 2027 rainy seasons remain uncertain and will be closely monitored as new climate information becomes available.
The Agency added that it is monitoring the developing El Niño event daily and will continue to issue updated weather outlooks alongside its regular ten-day agricultural bulletins.
It will also work with stakeholders across agriculture, health, energy, water resources, disaster management, transport and other sectors to ensure that forecasts inform timely preparedness and response measures.
