Ghana’s food security could face serious pressure if the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran continues to disrupt global fertilizer supply chains, the Chamber of Agribusiness Ghana (CAG) has warned.
In a statement issued on March 10, 2026, the Chamber said escalating tensions in the Middle East have effectively halted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime routes for fertilizer inputs.
According to the Chamber, the waterway plays a key role in the global fertilizer market, carrying about 31 percent of the world’s urea, 44 percent of sulfur, 18 percent of ammonia and 15 percent of processed phosphates. With shipping companies suspending transit through the corridor and war-risk insurance withdrawn, fertilizer shipments have become extremely difficult.
The disruption has already begun affecting international fertilizer prices. Urea prices at the New Orleans barge market have increased by between $60 and $80 per metric tonne within the first six days of the conflict. Analysts say prices could rise significantly if the situation persists.
The Chamber noted that Ghana’s agriculture sector is particularly vulnerable because the country relies entirely on imported raw materials to produce fertilizer. While local companies blend fertilizers domestically, the core inputs are sourced from abroad.
In 2024, Ghana imported 554,239 metric tonnes of fertilizer, making it the third-largest importer in West Africa. This heavy dependence on global supply chains means the country quickly feels the impact of international disruptions.
The warning comes at a time when Ghana’s food system is already facing challenges. Food insecurity stood at 38.1 percent nationwide as of the third quarter of 2025, while maize production dropped by 28 percent following the 2024/2025 drought.
The Chamber outlined three possible scenarios depending on how long the conflict lasts.
If tensions ease within three weeks, fertilizer prices could rise by between 15 and 20 percent, increasing Ghana’s fertilizer import bill by up to $55 million. In that case, food insecurity could climb to about 42 percent.
However, if the conflict lasts between three and nine months, which the Chamber considers the most likely outcome, urea prices could increase by as much as 90 percent. That would raise Ghana’s fertilizer costs by up to $175 million and potentially push food insecurity levels to between 45 and 50 percent.
Under a worst-case scenario where the conflict extends beyond nine months, fertilizer prices could surge to between $1,000 and $1,400 per tonne. The Chamber warns this could drive food insecurity in Ghana to as high as 65 percent.
To reduce the potential impact, the Chamber is urging the government to take immediate action. It recommends suspending fertilizer import tariffs and levies, which currently add an estimated 12 percent duty burden on imports.
The Chamber also called for government-to-government procurement arrangements with Morocco’s fertilizer producer, OCP Group, to secure alternative supply routes outside the Gulf region.
Other proposals include expanding credit support for fertilizer importers, restoring subsidy distribution mechanisms under the Planting for Food and Jobs programme in northern Ghana, and establishing a national fertilizer strategic reserve.
Despite the uncertainty, the Chamber encouraged farmers to continue planting while adopting more efficient practices such as fertilizer micro-dosing and intercropping with legumes to reduce reliance on chemical fertilizers.
According to the Chamber, the current crisis highlights Ghana’s long-standing vulnerability to global supply disruptions and underscores the urgent need for domestic fertilizer production and strategic reserves to strengthen the country’s food security.
