Governance, Religion and Policy think tank, IGER Africa, has projected a likely victory for former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in the upcoming New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer elections.
According to the organisation, Dr. Bawumia’s strong political résumé, economic expertise, and deep-rooted presence within the party place him in a favourable position ahead of the polls scheduled for Saturday, January 31.
Founder and President of IGER Africa, Paul Abrokwa, described Dr. Bawumia as an experienced politician whose background as an economist strengthens his appeal within the party’s internal electoral college. He noted that these factors significantly enhance the former Vice President’s chances of emerging victorious in the NPP primaries.
However, Mr. Abrokwa cautioned that while Dr. Bawumia may secure the party’s ticket, his path in the 2028 general elections could face a major challenge due to religious dynamics within Ghana’s electorate.
“Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s prospects of winning the NPP presidential primary are strong due to his political experience, economic credentials, and party support,” the statement noted. “However, the religious dynamics of Ghana’s electorate present a significant hurdle for his success in the 2028 general election.”
IGER Africa’s analysis points to the predominance of Christianity among voters, the risk of religious polarisation, and the possibility of strategic mobilisation by political opponents as factors that could limit his ability to secure broad national support.
The think tank stressed that success in Ghana’s diverse political environment requires candidates to handle religious sensitivities carefully while promoting inclusive and unifying narratives.
“The research underscores the critical need for candidates to navigate religious sensitivities thoughtfully and foster inclusivity in order to succeed in Ghana’s pluralistic political landscape,” the statement added.
Dr. Bawumia is contesting the NPP flagbearer position alongside Kennedy Agyapong, Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, Dr. Bryan Acheampong, and Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum, as the party prepares to select its presidential candidate ahead of the 2028 elections.
