Ghana’s economy is expected to remain resilient in the face of rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, thanks largely to strong gold prices and steady foreign exchange inflows from exports, according to Fitch Solutions.
In its latest assessment, the research firm noted that although global gold prices have dipped by about 14% since tensions escalated in late February 2026, the overall outlook remains highly favorable for gold-producing countries like Ghana. As of March 27, gold was trading at US$4,413 per ounce—still nearly three times higher than the 2015–2024 average of US$1,603 per ounce.
Fitch Solutions maintains an even more bullish forecast, projecting gold prices to average US$4,600 per ounce in 2026. If achieved, this would mark a record annual high and represent a 33.7% increase over the 2025 average of US$3,442 per ounce.
According to the firm, these elevated prices will play a critical role in insulating Ghana’s economy from external shocks linked to the US–Iran conflict. Increased export earnings are expected to boost foreign exchange inflows, easing pressure on the cedi and strengthening the country’s external position.
“Strong export-related inflows, combined with a broadly balanced oil trade position, should help cushion Ghana from global volatility,” Fitch Solutions stated. The report also highlighted that earlier fiscal consolidation efforts, alongside the rollout of a new gold royalty regime, are likely to help keep government spending pressures under control.
As Africa’s leading gold exporter, Ghana stands to benefit significantly from this trend. Gold production is projected to rise by 7.1%, driven by increased output from key mines including Bibiani, Chirano, and Namdini.
On the back of this growth, gold export revenues are expected to climb by 12.9% to reach US$23.7 billion—equivalent to 1.5% of Ghana’s GDP. This is notably higher than the 0.9% average recorded between 2010 and 2024.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s hydrocarbons trade balance is forecast to remain largely stable. This suggests that recent increases in global energy prices are unlikely to significantly disrupt the country’s current account position.
