S&P Global Ratings has cautioned that Ghana’s sovereign credit rating could come under pressure within the next 12 to 18 months if the country’s current pace of economic reforms loses momentum.
In its latest assessment, the agency said any slowdown in fiscal consolidation particularly one that leads to wider budget deficits or rising debt servicing costs could weaken government’s ability to refinance its obligations as they mature.
According to S&P, such a scenario could trigger a downgrade. The agency stressed that maintaining reform discipline is critical to sustaining investor confidence and stabilising the economy.
Beyond domestic fiscal risks, S&P also highlighted vulnerabilities in Ghana’s external sector. A potential decline in export volumes or worsening terms of trade, it noted, could negatively impact the country’s overall credit profile.
Another key concern is Ghana’s ongoing debt restructuring process. While significant progress has been made, S&P warned that disagreements among creditors under the G20 Common Framework could delay the final stages. Any such delays, though not currently expected, could also lead to a negative rating action.
However, the agency pointed to a more optimistic outlook if the government stays the course. Sustained fiscal discipline, lower deficits, reduced debt servicing costs, and stronger access to foreign financing could support a potential upgrade within the same 12 to 18-month period. Strengthening external reserves would also play a key role.
For now, S&P has maintained Ghana’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook. This reflects what it describes as a balance between improving fiscal and external indicators and ongoing vulnerabilities, including high debt costs and exposure to global commodity price fluctuations.
Ghana’s economic recovery has been closely tied to its debt restructuring programme, which followed the country’s 2022 default. The government has since restructured domestic debt in 2023 and completed a $13.1 billion Eurobond restructuring in October 2024. Overall, about 97% of the targeted debt has either been reworked or is nearing agreement.
Recent progress in talks with key creditors, including the African Export-Import Bank and holders of Saderea commercial notes, has further advanced the process after earlier setbacks.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s external sector has shown notable improvement, largely driven by strong gold prices. The country recorded a current account surplus of $9.35 billion equivalent to 8.1% of GDP in 2025. Gross international reserves also climbed to a record $14.5 billion, providing a stronger buffer against external shocks.
S&P’s latest assessment underscores the delicate balance Ghana must maintain keeping reforms on track while navigating both domestic and global economic risks.
