The Minerals Income and Investment Fund (MIIF) has warned that rising geopolitical tensions will play a decisive role in shaping global financial markets and Ghana’s external sector in 2026, as unresolved conflicts and shifting trade relationships continue to influence commodity prices, capital flows and investor confidence.
In its Economic and Market Outlook and Strategic Investment Orientation for 2026 report, MIIF said ongoing instability particularly tensions in the Middle East, the prolonged Russia–Ukraine war and renewed global trade frictions triggered sharp price swings across energy and metals markets in 2025. The Fund noted that these pressures are expected to persist into 2026, interacting more strongly with long-term structural trends such as the global energy transition and a gradual easing of monetary policy worldwide.
Market trends observed in 2025 clearly reflected these dynamics. Gold prices surged by nearly 72 percent over the year, driven by heightened safe-haven demand and sustained purchases by central banks. This performance reinforced gold’s position as Ghana’s most resilient export commodity.
Silver also posted strong gains, particularly in the latter half of the year, supported by rising industrial demand linked to clean energy technologies and advanced manufacturing. By contrast, Brent crude oil prices softened, while cocoa and bauxite prices came under pressure due to easing supply constraints and weaker downstream demand.
According to MIIF, these contrasting movements point to a shift in how geopolitical shocks affect global markets. Rather than pushing commodity prices in the same direction, such shocks are increasingly amplifying existing structural trends. Central banks have continued to build gold reserves, while global mining investment has shown a growing preference for politically stable jurisdictions that are critical to energy-transition supply chains.
Looking ahead, MIIF expects OPEC production decisions, developments in major conflict zones and changes in global trade policy to remain key factors influencing commodity markets, portfolio allocation and cross-border capital flows in 2026.
For Ghana, the Fund stressed that maintaining strong gold-driven inflows, while carefully managing exposure to weaker bulk commodities, will be crucial to sustaining external sector stability in the year ahead.
Source: norvanreport.com
