Africa’s leading industrial economies are positioning themselves to benefit from the growing trade rivalry between the United States and China, as both global powers roll out competing market access offers to the continent.
Washington has extended the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for an additional 12 months, pushing its validity to December 31, 2026. The trade arrangement continues to grant eligible African countries preferential access to the U.S. market, while discussions on selective bilateral trade agreements remain ongoing.
Beijing has responded with a broader offer, announcing zero-tariff treatment for products from 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations. The new policy, scheduled to begin implementation in early May, expands duty-free access beyond the 33 mostly least-developed countries that previously enjoyed similar benefits.
Rather than choosing between the two superpowers, African governments appear to be pursuing both opportunities in a strategic effort to boost exports and diversify markets.
In early February, South Africa signed a Framework Agreement on Economic Partnership for Shared Prosperity with China to help secure duty-free access for its exports into the Chinese market. An Early Harvest Agreement is expected by the end of March 2026 to operationalise the arrangement.
South Africa’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Parks Tau, said deepening ties with China could create new opportunities for businesses, particularly in mining, agriculture, renewable energy and technology.
South Africa already exports citrus fruits and rooibos tea to China and hopes the zero-duty treatment will widen its export basket, especially as it navigates tariff tensions with the United States.
According to AgriSA, one of the country’s largest agricultural organisations, South Africa’s exports to the U.S. rose by 26 percent to $161 million in 2025, partly due to a temporary pause in higher U.S. tariffs. Although exports declined by 11 percent to $144 million in the third quarter, the U.S. still accounts for between 3 percent and 6 percent of South Africa’s total annual agricultural exports.
AgriSA Chief Executive Officer Johann Kotzé described AGOA as a shared economic and development tool that should not be politicised, reiterating calls for a longer-term renewal to provide greater certainty for exporters.
Kenya is also advancing a broad export expansion strategy targeting the Far East, Europe, parts of Asia, the United States and intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Kenya’s Trade, Investment and Industry Cabinet Secretary, Lee Kinyanjui, announced that an Early Harvest Arrangement with China was nearing conclusion and would grant 98 percent of Kenyan exports duty-free access to the Chinese market.
“We hope by mid-March we should be signing it. Kenyan exporters will then be able to access the Chinese 1.4 billion market tariff-free,” Kinyanjui said during a visit to the Export Processing Zones Authority in February.
At the same time, Nairobi is engaging Washington to secure market access beyond AGOA. Officials say negotiations are at an advanced stage to establish a bilateral trade agreement that would allow Kenyan goods to enter the U.S. market quota-free and with minimal tariffs.
Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary, Korir Sing’oei, said the country sees no contradiction in pursuing stronger trade ties with both global powers, describing it as a pragmatic approach to economic growth.
Trade data, however, highlights existing imbalances. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Kenya’s exports to China fell by 27 percent from $20.5 million to $15 million between December 2024 and December 2025. Over the same period, imports from China increased by $209 million to $1.11 billion. The decline in exports was largely driven by reduced shipments of scrap copper, tea and precious metal ore.
As competition between Washington and Beijing intensifies, African economies are leveraging the rivalry to negotiate better trade terms. Countries such as South Africa and Kenya are adopting a dual-track strategy aimed at expanding export markets, strengthening domestic industries and reducing vulnerability to global trade shocks.
